Bankroll For $25 Blackjack

• Appendices
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1. Bankroll For $25 Blackjack Game
2. Bankroll For $25 Blackjack Games

To my surprise, on this trip, the $5.00 blackjack table had either disappeared or they were paying 6 to 5 on a blackjack. I played a fair $5.00 game at the El Cortez but was hard pressed to find another casino that provided a $5.00 table with reasonable rules.

• A progression bet usually begins with two units, or two times the minimum bet at the table. At a $5 blackjack table your starting bet will usually be $10. At a $25 table it will be $50, and so on. Most progression betting systems incorporate this in order to allow you to “pull” a profit after the first winning hand in a progression.
• Complete charts on blackjack betting and bankroll risk management for the blackjack basic strategy player. Blackjack Betting and Risk: BLACKJACK BASIC STRATEGY: CONTENTS Learn Blackjack Basic Strategy. $100 and $1000, because you simply have to move the decimal point. For flat bets of $5 or $25 or whatever, just use a pocket calculator.

Introduction

There are some sources that address the question of the probability of doubling a bankroll before losing it, in a card counting situation. Ken Uston's Million Dollar Blackjack, to name one. This appendix shall not recover that issue. However, I am often asked about how much the basic strategy player's bankroll should be, given a targeted number of hands to play. This is especially practical if the player must play a certain number of hands to earn an online casino bonus.

The rules assumed for these tables are six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may double after splitting, player may resplit to three hands, no surrender, dealer peeks for blackjack. Under these rules, the house edge is 0.4140%.

Let's look at an example of how this table can be used. Assume that the player makes a deposit of $1000 to an online casino, and is required to bet through $5000 in action. If the player is to willing to play through 500 hands, then his average bet size would be $5000/500 = $10. The number of betting units would be $1000/$10 = 100. The table shows the risk of ruin is 0.01% for 102 units, so would be just over 0.01% for 100. Perhaps this is too conservative, so the player considers playing 200 hands. The bet size is now $5000/200 = $25. The number of units is $1000/$25 = 40. Interpolating the table shows the risk of ruin would be 1.5%.

Number of Hands to Play

Risk of Ruin	100	200	300	400	500	600	700	800	900
50%	7	11	14	16	18	20	22	24	25
40%	9	14	17	20	23	25	27	29	31
30%	12	17	21	25	28	31	33	36	38
20%	15	21	26	31	34	38	41	44	47
10%	19	27	34	39	44	48	53	57	60
5%	22	32	40	46	52	58	62	67	71
4%	23	34	42	49	55	60	65	70	75
3%	25	36	44	51	58	64	69	74	79
2%	27	38	47	55	62	68	74	79	84
1%	29	42	52	61	68	75	82	88	93
0.5%	32	46	57	66	74	82	89	95	101
0.25%	35	50	61	71	80	88	96	102	109
0.1%	38	54	67	77	87	95	104	111	118
0.01%	45	64	79	91	102	112	122	131	139

Number of Hands to Play

Risk of Ruin	1000	1200	1400	1600	1800	2000	2500	3000
50%	27	30	32	35	37	40	45	50
40%	33	37	40	43	46	49	56	62
30%	41	45	49	53	56	60	68	75
20%	50	55	60	65	69	73	83	92
10%	64	70	76	82	88	93	105	116
5%	76	83	90	97	104	110	124	137
4%	79	87	95	102	108	114	129	143
3%	83	92	100	107	114	121	136	151
2%	89	98	107	114	122	129	145	161
1%	99	108	118	126	134	142	160	177
0.5%	107	118	128	137	146	154	174	192
0.25%	115	126	137	147	156	166	187	206
0.1%	125	138	149	160	170	180	202	223
0.01%	148	162	175	188	198	212	236	261

Methodology

The tables above were created by random simulation. I have been asked several times for a general formula for other situations. Unfortunately there isn't any that I know of. Risk of ruin problems are mathematically usually very complicated. It is easier and more convincing to run a random simulation instead.

Written by: Michael Shackleford

Perhaps your attitude toward risk of ruin is that you are willing to wager more than the optimal amount on each blackjack hand. For example, maybe your capital is only $1,000 but you are willing to use $25 as your big bet.

If you bet more than the optimal bet size, you are overbetting. Overbetting will cause you to win more when you are lucky and to lose more when you are unlucky. To avoid going broke, you would have to cut your bet size after a series of losses. The disadvantage of overbetting is that the extra win when you are lucky is outweighed by the accelerated bet cuts dictated by the bigger losses when you are unlucky. You can overbet for a while and get away with it, but the person who bet the optimal amount consistently will make more money over the long haul than the person who overbets consistently.

Overbetting can be financially fatal

If you continually overbet you will go broke even though you have an advantage. Do not overbet. If you do not understand why overbetting is bad, deal 100 hands to yourself and pretend bet, say, one-fourth of your capital on each round. You must recalculate your capital after each round. Your capital goes down fast, even if you win more hands than you lose.

Stopping Rules

A cousin problem of overbetting is what to do when you are losing and running out of pocket cash. Always keep enough money to split a pair or to double down. For example, if you are down to your last $200 and the pack is very profitable, the most you should bet is $100, or $50 for each of two hands. Save the other $100 in case you must double down or split a pair. Try to carry enough cash so that you do not get into this position. Never make a bet that you would be unwilling or unable to match if you should have to split a pair or double down. You have an advantage over the dealer only if you are willing and able to play the hands correctly.

Although a time comes during a losing streak when you should stop, namely, when you run out of pocket cash, no rule for stopping governs a winning streak. The probability of your winning the next hand from an honest dealer is the same whether you have been losing or winning. Quitting offers no advantage when you are a certain number of dollars ahead. True, it is disappointing to make only $6,500 on a trip when you were $12,000 ahead at one time, and you may tend to blame yourself for being greedy; you tell yourself that you should have quit with the $12,000. Cheer up — you did the right thing in continuing to play. No optimal stopping rules exist. You never know whether you are right now at a high point or whether you will continue to win in the hours ahead. If you are playing correctly, the chances of your winning another thousand dollars always exceed the chances of your losing another thousand dollars.

Never become apprehensive, and never become satisfied. If you think you are being cheated, then of course stop betting. Your chance of being cheated by a dealer in a legal casino in Nevada or other well-regulated jurisdictions is close to zero.

Excerpted with permission from the e-book version of Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong.

Bankroll For $25 Blackjack Game

Bankroll For $25 Blackjack Games

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